Political Stability and Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Political Stability and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract:

The study empirically investigated the relationship between political stability and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1999 to 2014 using the ARDL model approach. The result revealed a positive and significant relationship between political stability and economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. The study concludes that a stable political environment is an indispensable element for economic growth and therefore, the government of Nigeria should as a matter of necessity, identify the root causes of unstable political environment and try to mitigate its effects so as to ensure sustained growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Political Stability, Economic Growth and ARDL Model.

I. Introduction

The importance of political stability to economic development of any country has become a topic of a continuous debate among economists, political scientists and politicians. Alesina, Ozler, Roubin and Swagel, (1996), argued that political stability and Economic growth are deeply interconnected. On the one hand, the uncertainty associated with an unstable political environment may reduce investment and the speed of economic development. On the other hand, poor economic performance may lead to government collapse and political unrest. On the role of political stability and economic performance in Bangladesh, Ahmed and Poluk (2103) argued that, political stability is expected to foster economic growth in the short run. Political stability ensure improvement in employment, protect the basic right of citizens, promote their culture and unity, provide basic infrastructure and services, electricity, water supply, healthcare and hence ensured increase in both local and foreign investment. Democracy fosters political stability and enhances economic growth relative to nondemocratic rule in a given country and political stability regardless of the extent of democracy, has significant effect on growth in developing countries (Abeyasinghe, 2004).

The year 1999 marked a watershed in the history of modern Nigeria, in that it ushered in what was expected to be ‘enduring democracy’. Before then, the country had oscillated between civil and military rule, with the latter having longer periods. Since 1999, however, Nigeria has been enjoying uninterrupted democratic governance which presupposes political stability yet the growth of the economy seems illutionary. It is this reality that informed this study given the fact that democratic governance should ordinarily, among other things, usher in societal development, inclusion and participation of citizens in governance; accountability and transparency on the part of government officials as well as a stable political environment which attracts investment (local and foreign) that leads to increase growth of the economy. Also, studies on the impact of political stability on economic performance in Nigeria are scarce in literature, even the few available ones in literature are more of content analysis (i.e. they are analyzed qualitatively). This study therefore differ from existing studies in that, it quantitatively investigated the relationship between political stability and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data over the period between 1999 and 2014 which is considered most recent in terms of data availability.

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