Three APC governors, including Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Rotimi Akeredolu (Ondo), and Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), stormed Port Harcourt on Friday for an undisclosed meeting with Wike, sparking speculation that they may try to persuade him to join forces with the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election[/b]s.
[b]Prior to now, Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate, was in Port Harcourt for a closed-door meeting with Wike. Former Kano State Governor Musa Kwankwanso also paid Wike a visit in Port Harcourt.
It is widely assumed that the Rivers State governor is bitterly disappointed that he was cheated out of the Vice Presidential slot by Atiku, who chose Okowa instead, this was despite the fact that a committee formed to select Atiku’s running mate gave Wike the thumbs up.
Matters arising.
Politics, like any other endeavor in life, is all about interest, whether it is personal interest, regional interest, party interest, or religious interest; as long as there is an interest, everyone in politics is motivated.
The Rivers State governor’s term is coming to an end, and he needs to do everything he can to stay in the spotlight. One of the appeals of the 2023 general elections is that many political heavyweights may retire from politics at a young age. One such example is Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
Wike is not immune from this, and he has no choice but to defend his continued access to power or exit the stage in early retirement.
For ex-governors to be relevant, they must hold a national position, such as a senatorial or ministerial position.
There is no guarantee that any Ex-Governor can maintain his position of leadership in his state even if he produces his successor on his own; in most cases, the successors are the ones who would even retire them.
Consider Rotimi Amaechi as an example. What significance would he have had in Rivers State if he had not been a Federal Minister? By now Wike would have confined him to the hall of HISTORY in the State, like the likes of Odili , Omehia and co.
So he has only two options: ride and sink with the PDP if they fail to win the presidency, or align with the APC and secure political relevance in the next dispensation , as Godswill Akpabio and Rotimi Amaechi did in the previous electoral dispensation. When it comes to the 2023 presidential elections, Wike is a monster of a resource; ignore him at your own peril.
Here are some signs why it seems obvious that Wike may align with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the sake of the coming presidential elections.
The fact that all three of these governors are from the South West makes it abundantly clear that the purpose of their trip is to court Wike, who happens to be the beautiful bride of the moment in supporting Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidential ambition.
Now, Wike made certain that the visit was widely publicized, as attested to by Kayode Fayemi, who was seen asking Wike why there were so many cameras from the moment they stepped out of the vehicle that brought in the Governors. Keep in mind that when the August visitors arrived, Ayodele Fayose was present.
Which means Wike prepared well for the meeting and invited his trusted ally from the South West, Ayo Fayose to be a witness , the former Ekiti State Governor has since declared his support for the APC presidential candidate saying power must come back to the South. Wike was overheard saying Tinubu’s signature cap is currently trending.
Then there was the viral video that surfaced after the PDP convention, just as Atiku was about to choose his running mate, in which Wike was seen threatening to leave the PDP for the APC; that video was a premeditated attempt to muscle things up in the PDP, just as Tinubu’s Emi Lokan’s outburst video changed the game in the APC prior to the party primaries.
The video clearly showed that it was recorded by multiple sources, so it could never have been a leaked video because it was officially recorded.
Even if the video was as old as they claimed, you have to wonder why it suddenly surfaced online when no one had ever seen it before.
Ordinarily Wike is smart and one hell of a dogged politician, he may have factored in his own calculations on how the presidential election may swing.
Breakdown of analysis on who is leading the online registration and how voters may likely vote.
North-Central (Also called the middle belt)with its member states being; Benue(200,400), Kogi(344496), Kwara(364,716), Nassarawa(201,842), Niger(113,295), Plateau(375,691), and Abuja(269,985)
North-East with its member states being; Adamawa(157,142), Bauchi(251,182), Borno(501,314), Gombe(248,021), Taraba(262,258), and Yobe(91,350)
North-West with its member states being; Jigawa(235,524), Kaduna(574,811), Kano(369,651), Katsina(119,209), Kebbi(81,133), Sokoto(265,633), and Zamfara(359,651)
South-East with its member states being; Abia(107,953), Anambra(159,741), Ebonyi(274,389), Enugu(73,165), and Imo(70,759)
South-South with its member state being; Akwa Ibom(144,014), Bayelsa(550,207), Cross River(107,085), Rivers(388,740), Edo(330,903), and Delta(641,174)
South-west with its member states being; Ekiti(168,478), Lagos(640,774), Ogun(319,487), Ondo(175,388), Osun(708,968), and Oyo(240,911)
All figures are as at 7am Monday 27th June 2022.
One misleading fact that some Nigerians have alluded to is that the massive voter registration turnout is the result of a new political party or structure. The figures above show that the major political gladiators are not sleeping and are doing everything they can to gather votes.
A case in point was the last APC special convention that saw Tinubu emerge as the Party’s flagbearer, during the two days event held in Abuja, the streets of Abuja practically looked like any state in the South West, with people from the South West everywhere you turned.
However, careful investigations show that Tinubu may not be solely responsible for this incredible turnout of visitors into Abuja, as so many numerous groups mobilized their members across the states to turn up in solidarity with Tinubu . All of these movements are more strenuous than obtaining the PVC.
My point here, which should be taken as a HOME STUDY, is that every politician who wants to win an election understands that it is the voters who decide, and the INEC is improving every day to the delight of the people. The current battle is a scramble for PVC by these political rivals.
Let us take a breakdown of the voters registration and see who is likely ahead.
North-Central the APC controls Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger, Plateau while Abuja prior now seems to be PDP inclined , then Benue happens to be PDP.
Wherever a political party controls the state, a sizable chunk of votes will be delivered for the party and this is why, commissioners, special advisers, House of Assembly members, and so on will serve in their interests. Take the last presidential elections in Imo State as an example.
Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential Candidate, won the 2019 presidential election with 334,923 votes out of a total of 542,777 votes cast in the state, while Buhari received 140, 463 votes. Now, go look at how Buhari fared in other South-East states during that election, and you will agree with my assertion. This is the structure that some people are reluctant to discuss.
So, while the PDP also has a stronghold, we can say that the APC give and take would deliver an excellent performance in this zone. The Labour Party would undoubtedly receive some votes in this area, especially in Plateau.
North East: The PDP controls Adamawa, Bauchi, and Taraba in the North-East, while the APC controls Gombe, Yobe, and Borno.
With the confirmation of former Borno State Governor as Buhari’s running mate yesterday, this would be a battleground for the APC and the PDP. Kashim Shettima is from Borno, which recently registered 501,314 new voters, more than double the figure for Atiku’s Adamawa, which registered 157,142 new voters.
The frontrunners in the North East would be the PDP and the APC.
North-West; Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina , and Zamfara are all APC enclaves with only Sokoto under the grip of PDP.
Now the interesting thing about this zone is that Kwankwanso comes from the zone.
The NNPP candidate will make his strongest showing in Kano, competing with Ganduje. Kaduna leads this zone in terms of new voter turnout, and the last time we checked, Kaduna was a state that performed admirably in the eyes of Kaduna electorates.
South-East ; PDP controls Abia, APGA controls Anambra, the APC controls Ebonyi, the PDP controls Enugu, and the APC controls Imo.
This is where the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, has the most support, but also the least in both new voter registration and old voter registration. Whether you like it or not, if you follow the political trend, the APC will take some votes from the states of Imo and Ebonyi, leaving the PDP and LP to dominate this zone.
The South East case is sadly pitiful; they have the lowest voter turnout and still unknown gunmen, and IPOB will not let them be.
Consider Borno State, the home of Boko Haram, which registered 501,314 new voters, while the highest the South East could get at the end of June was a mere 274,389 from Ebonyi State (this is now an APC state).
What is the reason the average Borno person would leave Kashim Shettima to vote in Peter Obi when the South East can not even register enough votes for him, charity must begin at home.
Allow me to state unequivocally that the South East should take my advice and go get their PVC as soon as possible. It’s a shame that in an online registration where the Labour Party dominates the Social Media space and yet they can’t compete with states with high illiteracy rates.
From the kick of the election in September issues like the Muslim-Muslim ticket, brotherhood voting , religious bigotry and ethic issues would surface and dominate the electoral process. It is all part of the propaganda.
So what this means is that the South East should do more to increase voter turnout because the more you politicize the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, the more support they gain from the North, so you in the South East that is saying no to a Muslim-Muslim how many voters do you have to offer ?
Those with ears should pay close attention and take this as a warning: every adversity contains the seeds of an equal advantage. And this is something we must keep in mind.
South-South; Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Bayelsa, and Rivers are under the control of the PDP, while Cross River is under the control of the APC.
This is a strong PDP enclave, but with Cross Rivers and Ayade under the APC, the APC will have some votes there, like it or not.
Delta State will continue to rely on their son, Okowa, with Peter Obi putting in a strong performance.
If you look at the Delta State new voter registration process, you will agree with me that Warri NO DEY CARRY LAST. Okowa would deliver for the PDP, while Omo-Agege, the APC’s governorship candidate, would have a significant impact. Peter Obi would also get a lot of votes in this district.
Rivers State is the beautiful pride, and with Wike attracting all the suitors, he would take a sizable number of votes with him if he defected to the APC. Don’t forget that the Rivers people feel betrayed by Delta State over the PDP vice presidential slot; it would just be brute political strategizing and payback time.
Edo seems to be very Obidient with Obaseki making his way to the Labour Party, while Bayelsa with its huge online registration would tend to stick with the PDP.
South-west : Is the home of APC and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu , only Oyo State is controlled by the PDP and from the numerous awesome reception that Makinde offers Tinubu then we should not expect the South West to leave their son. “Emi Lokan”, The South West believes that it is their turn to hold the presidency, and they would do anything to not miss out on the chance.
The Jagaban is the only candidate for president who has a certain region fully behind him, whereas the five other geopolitical regions would be fiercely contested by all other candidates. This is where Tinubu has secured himself a guaranteed ticket.
Buhari received 15, 191, 847 votes in the 2019 presidential elections, while Atiku received 11, 262, 978 votes, a difference of approximately 4 million votes. As things currently stand, Tinubu, as the leader of the ruling party, would garner a sizable number of votes from across the zones.
If you are in doubt of these analysis here is a breakdown of the new registered voters by region.
South South: 2,162,123…North Central: 1,870,425…South West…2,254,006
North East. :1,511,267…North West.:2,005,144…South East: 685, 007
Now the South West is leading in the voters registration with 2,162,123 and the South East is walking like a snail behind with 685, 007.