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THE IMPACT OF EXPORT TRADING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
ABSTRACT
The paper employed OLS to determine the impact of oil and non-oil export on economic growth while granger causality test was employed to determine the direction of causality between the variables under consideration. Correlation analysis was also deployed to determine the degree of relationship between the variables and the result showed that all the variables are highly correlated. The study uses annual time series data from 1986-2011, obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The study reviles that oil export has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria proxied by GDP. Non-oil export was also found to be positively and significantly impacting to economic growth in Nigeria proxied by GDP. Foreign reserve also has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. The result shows that the overall regression was statistically significant at both 99% and 95% level of confidence. The result of R2 (0.99) shows that the line of best fit was highly fitted. The result of the granger causality test shows that GDP granger causes OEXP and FRESV, and OEXP granger causes NOEXP, while NOEXP also granger causes FRESV. The study finds that, growth-led-export hypothesis is valid in Nigeria context. We therefore recommend among other things, that the government should take urgent steps to restructure the oil sector so as to improve their contribution to the growth of Nigerian economy. The government should introduce more policies and program that will adequately boost the non-oil sector of the Nigeria economy so that it will impact more meaningfully on economic growth of the country; other programs that encourages increase in foreign reserve should also be adopted in other to increase the growth of the economy. Copyright © IJEBF, all rights reserved.
Key words: Oil-Export, Non-oil Export, Economic Growth, Foreign Reserve,