Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Past, Present and Determinants

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Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Past, Present and Determinants

Abstract

This study empirically analyses the pattern of economic growth in Nigeria since its independence and investigates the determinants of its economic growth for the sample period 1960-2015. The findings of the study based on the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model indicate that the long-run economic growth is significantly influenced by the level of investment, while political stability and political freedom have a negative insignificant impact on the growth rate of the Nigerian economy. However, the oneyear lag of the economic growth substantially determines the level of economic growth in the short-run.

Introduction

The growing concern among researchers in the field of macroeconomics focuses on providing evidencebased answers to the following economic questions: what determines economic growth? Why some countries grow faster than the other? What accounts for unequal growth rates across countries? Are these factors country-specific? There are still diverse answers to the above questions in the literature. However, scanty or little empirical studies have been conducted in examining the influence of political factors on economic growth in developing nations like Nigeria, relative to other determinants such as FDI, human capital, physical capital, trade openness, financial development, economic freedom etc. The political climate of any country can promote or retard economic growth, which is why this paper intends to examine the determinants of economic growth in Nigeria as well as its political effects on the level of economic performance.

The study adds to the existing knowledge on determinants of economic growth from a number of angles. First, quite a number of studies on economic growth in Nigeria focus on the relationship between economic growth, FDI and economic freedom, there is no study that has specifically investigated the link between economic growth and political factors in Nigeria to the best knowledge of the author. Second, most research on the political system was mainly cross-countries analysis (see Bengoa and Sanchez, 2003; Javorcik (2004); Kapuria (2007). The country-specific studies on the relationship between a political system and economic growth are very limited in the case of Nigeria. In addition, the use of most recent dataset with a large scope is another contribution to the existing research. This study seeks to address this issue by building quantitative models in order to how much its growth has been improved over the years and the contributing factors to these improved growths. In addition, it lays out empirically as many facts as possible about the country’s economic growth since its independence in 1960.

The basic aim of this paper is to empirically examine the long-run determinants of Nigerian economic growth. The empirical paper depends on a time series regression framework in which economic growth is fundamentally determined by drivers identified in the growth accounts, and potentially influenced by political factors. The novel ideas in its econometric work are that the study employs a long –term database spanning almost fifty-five years.The study fills the existing gap in the literature by examining the impact of political regimes on economic growth for developing economies like Nigeria that had been ruled by the British government for almost 100 years.

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