Atiku Will Win Most Disputed Election
By Dele Sobowale On Feb 12, 2023
“The truth shall make you free; but first, it shall make you miserable. – Anonymous, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 253.
I will repeat it again. Prophecy is not a popularity contest. It is a gift of God; and should not be traded for anything. True prophets have always been unpopular and unhappy individuals; because they say what a lot of people don’t want to hear. Because nobody can be a politician and be honest is the major reason I refrained from joining politics. In politics as in any other group competition, you are expected to develop “group-think”; to support what would secure victory for your side even if untrue or unfair. I have no such inclinations.
Furthermore, realising the importance of a free press, I have kept my distance as much as practical from the politicians. I owe none any financial obligations to be discharged; none of them can feel betrayed if I write what is unfavourable. Almighty God has provided for my needs so far; and He will do it to the end. If you are still reading, here are the reasons why this election will end as predicted.
The Last In A Series Of Predictions
“An alarm has been sounded to Christians with respect to 2023. Beware of those with Muslim-Muslim agenda.” – Dele Sobowale, VANGUARD, January 1, 2022.
The first statement, recalled above, regarding the outcome of the 2023 election was in an article published in the WEEK END VANGUARD. Few people read it; and most of those who read it promptly forgot or dismissed it. Bear in mind that INEC had not determined the election time table; no official expression of interest by anyone. Yet, I was certain we would have a Muslim-Muslim, Mu-Mu ticket in the race. We have one now.
Most Nigerians quite easily forget the past – even what happened two or three years ago; not to talk of ten years. Tinubu recently reminded us that he went to Buhari, in 2013, with the proposal for the coalition of political forces which became All Progressives Congress, APC. Central to the conspiracy was an agreement between the two. Tinubu would promote Buhari to emerge the Presidential candidate; and Buhari would nominate Tinubu as his Vice President, VP. A Muslim-Muslim ticket would have emerged. He was talking to the right person. General Buhari was Military Head of State in 1984 and his second in command General Tunde Idiagbon were both Muslims. The idea of the Mu-Mu ticket in 2015 was shot down by the spirited efforts of CAN and most Christians. In fact, given ten attempts at the Presidency, the Tinubu I know would prefer a Mu-Mu ticket any time. His shabby treatment of the three Christian Deputy Governors is story for another day.
That was not all. In August 2022, while the race was about to start, another article was published – ATIKU VERSUS TINUBU IN 2023 UNLESS. A lot of people remember that one; but, again few believed it until it happened. Prophets are accustomed to being ignored – until something happens. Now hardly a day starts and ends without somebody calling to ask me “who will win?” I have told them to wait until the right time. I waited, not out of fear; but because it was not the right time. NOW is the right time; because there is another message which is just as important. The second revelation might even be more important; but, it would not have been possible without the first one. We are in deep trouble. Predicted anarchy is here with fuel and cash scarcity, millions going hungry despite having thousands of naira in the bank.
I am not unaware of the attempts by usual election fraudsters to deceive Nigerians by publishing polls conducted in the comfort of their offices or homes in Lagos or Abuja proclaiming who will win. I have not undertaken a survey because of pervasive insecurity nationally. I doubt if those releasing results of polls went to Talata Mafara or Gwoza or Badeggi to interview people before publishing their fake results.However, before going forward, there is a need to address how the presence of Obi and Kwakanso has altered the original projections.
Why Obi And Kwakanso Are Handicapped.
“They came forth to war, but they always fell.’’ – James Macpherson, 1736-1796.
James Macpherson was the father of John Macpherson — one of Nigeria’s Governors General during the colonial era. His comment was made about weak armies of local people attempting, futilely, to fend off the British forces. Obi and Kwakanso have my sympathies; but nothing more. “Politics is war without bloodshed.” (Mao Tse-tung, May, 1938). The late Chinese leader was absolutely correct about politics. So, any analysis of our current adventure must start with that in mind. What follows was written before the candidates emerged. So only a mischievous person would ascribe any dislike for Kwalanso and Obi to the statements. Here they are.
“Atiku Versus Tinubu In 2035 Unless… 1
“If you don’t know where you are going; you’ll wind up somewhere else.” – Yogi Bera, US Comedian.
Ask many non-card-carrying citizens about the two major political parties in Nigerian today, they will probably tell you that the All Progressives Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, have failed the country since return to civil rule in 1999. Some will even offer the opinion that we need a third party – in order to make a clean break from the past. If you believe them, then you must be ready for a surprise in 2023. Unless certain events occur, then you might as well brace yourself for a contest between two old men of Nigerian politics in 2023 – Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as candidate of the PDP and Alhaji Ahmed Tinubu as the candidate of the APC. My advice to those opposed to any of those as successors to Buhari is simple. If you don’t want it, start working hard now. When a thunderstorm is predicted, it is of no use to insult the Weather Forecaster on television. Get ready to do the needful to protect yourself.
Before going into the reasons for that projection, permit me to say that this is not my wish. But, the unfolding political drama – including behind the scenes activities – indicates that the people of Nigeria would have been boxed into a corner resulting in only these options. Certainly, the usual adventurers, independent candidates and third party aspirants will contest. They will have no chance. “God is always on the side of the big battalions.” Marshall Turene, 1611- 1675….These are the battalion commanders in Nigerian politics as we move towards 2023.”
In the same article, the following prediction was made about the PDP and APC teams. “Second, Atiku will return to the South for his tag-team partner. He might repeat the experiment with Peter Obi. But, that is highly doubtful; Obi no longer controls his state’s votes. Instead, a South South governor in strong control of his state’s votes will be the likely choice. I again have an idea who will be his VP… Third, while the PDP will ensure a Muslim-Christian ticket; the APC might gamble that since a Muslim-Muslim – late Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe – won the 1993 election overwhelmingly, there is no reason why another team so composed cannot win. At least, they know, or presume to know, where the votes are.”
With the exception of Obi’s defection to the Labour Party, LP, and Kwakanso coming out for NNDP, very little has changed. Their entries into the race made it more competitive; but, in the end, it will still be a two-horse race. Atiku and Tinubu started running from 2019; Obi and Kwakanso just a few months ago. Permit me not to dwell on why Obi and Kwakanso will only make the race more interesting – in order to get to the reason Atiku will win.
The struggle for power shift to the South was conducted without participation by Tinubu or Obi. They stood on the sidelines for two reasons. Tinubu had already collected sufficient IOUs to ensure his emergence as APC candidate. He was only rattled by the late attempt to foist Senator Lawan as consensus candidate. Obi was also not an active crusader. His defection to the LP was very fortunate because he became the elusive Igbo candidate. Unfortunately, instead of a united South East, he is opposed by some strong Igbo politicians and pervasive violence might prevent Ndigbo from coming out on Election Day to vote massively for him. Finally, there is the possibility of stay-at-home order. The bulk vote he needs is threatened. In addition, his campaign workers have failed to create the grass roots support nationally. Kwakanso will split the vote in Kano state; and that is all. He can expect nothing more.
Tinubu committed a blunder with the Mu-Mu ticket. I have called and interviewed several Christians; and it is likely that 80 per cent will not vote for the APC ticket. That is a lot of votes to concede to your opponents. And, given a choice between a Northern and a Southern Muslim, the votes in the North will go North. Tinubu is not Abiola and Atiku is not Tofa…..
Unfortunately, nothing INEC does now will guarantee a free and fair election. There will be no voting in thousands of polling stations; creating a situation like we had in the 1964 General Elections. Those old enough should remember. Hell was let loose.
Dele Sobowale: Atiku Will Win Most Nigeria’s Disputed Election – Politics – Nigeria (nairaland.com)