Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Population Dynamics and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract:

This study investigated the relationship between population dynamics and economic growth in Nigeria using timeseries data spanning from 1970 to 2014. The data were analysed using ordinary least square estimation technique. The result revealed among other that all the core variables (i.e. fertility, mortality and net-migration) of the study are inversely related to economic growth during the investigated period. The study further revealed that gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and savings are strong drivers of economic growth in Nigeria. Sequel to the findings, the Nigerian government is advised to make direct efforts toward checking the alarming fertility rate in Nigeria. Also efforts should be made to improve the quality of Nigerian labour force through more substantial investment in education and skills acquisition programmes so as to improve productivity in Nigeria. Keywords: Population, Population dynamics, Economic Growth.

1.0 Introduction:

Nigeria like many other developing countries in the world has put in place countless economic policies in her numerous attempts to better the living standard of her populace in order to enhance sustainable economic growth and development. It is crystal clear that the country is not just blessed with abundant deposit or supply of diverse natural resources (such as bitumen, crude oil, timbers among many others) but also highly favoured in term of human population size. As such, the country is currently the most populous in Africa according to World Bank (2014). For a country with such huge population size, it is imperative to incorporate or consider population variables in any feasible economic development plan. Rutherford (2002) defined economic growth as growth in total output of an economy overtime, studies such as Aidi, Emecheta and Ngwudiobu (2016); Kotani and Kotani (2012); Louzi and Abadi (2011) and Nwosu, Dike and Okwara (2014) to mention but few showed that economic growth is often measured by growth in real gross domestic product (RGDP). While Nigeria’s population has been growing steadily, positively and significantly overtime; the trend of economic growth (measure by RGDP) in Nigeria has experienced high rate of fluctuation/volatility. To support this claim, data from World Bank (2014) revealed that RGDP has experienced both positive and negative growth. For instance, the growth rate of RGDP in 1975, 1986 and 1999 were -7.8percent, 11.1percent and -2.6percent respectively.

The relationship between population and economic growth was first noted in 1798 when the famous paper titled “An essay on the principle of population” by Thomas Malthus was published (Aidi et al., 2016). In Nigeria, population has been growing rapidly and consistently from time immemorial. For instance, the country’s population rose from 16.06 million in 1911 to 30.42 million in 1953; it rose further to 89 million in 1991 and to over 170million in 2014 (World Bank, 2014). This huge population size does not just make development planning difficult for the country but could also pose significant threats to economic growth in general in the country. Aside the huge population size, evidence from World Bank (2014) revealed that rate of fertility in Nigeria remained unacceptably very high. Fertility (births per woman) has been trending between 6.354 (recorded in 1960) and 6.004 (recorded in 2014) which is high compared to advanced countries like USA, Britain or Russia where fertility rate on the average is less than 2 (World Bank, as cited in Aidi et al., 2016).

In the face of high rate of fertility coupled with the declining rate of mortality (perhaps a resultant effect of global improvement in the overall medical/health services), a rise in the age-dependency ratio is not unexpected. To support this is data from the World Bank (2014) which revealed that age-dependency ratio rose from 79percent in 1960 to 83percent in 1970, 86percent in 2000 and about 90percent in 2014. Note that a rise in age-dependency ratio is tantamount to fall in the working population which in the long-run may negatively affect productivity (and economic growth).

In addition to the highlighted problems is the perceived unfavourable trend of migration (i.e. inflow and outflow of people) in the country. Drinkwater, Lotti and Pearlman (2003) asserted that migration may drain away valuable talents since educated and motivated people are in most cases likely to migrate in search of opportunities. The researchers explained further that in 2000, about 10.7percent of highly skilled population (trained in Nigeria) work abroad most especially in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Fadahunsi and Rosa (2002) noted that sixty-four percent of Nigerian emigrants (on the average) have attained tertiary level of education. In summary, all these are strong evidence in support of the assertion that many of those (professionals, athletes etc) who could have contributed to the development of Nigeria if engaged might have abandoned the nation and used their skills and intellect to aid the development of other countries.

While numerous efforts have been made by successive Nigerian governments at one time or the other to address .these problems, not much success has been achieved in this feat. It is against this backlog that this study is set out to investigate the impact of population dynamics (using fertility, mortality and net-migration as proxies) on economic growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2014.

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