What do I offer you: coffee, tea, water?” asked Peter Obi, the minor-party candidate leading the polls to become president of Africa’s most populous country. Such hospitality is to be expected: in years of interviewing west African politicians, I’ve never known one not to offer refreshments. Usually the Big Man barks out an order, and a couple of minutes later a flunky shuffles in deferentially with drinks.
With Obi, things are different. Though running late and in danger of missing his flight, he ambled over to the kettle himself. “Do you want a big cup or a small one? I’ve brought you a variety of teas,” he said. “It’s not important I have tea,” I protested, not wanting to make him miss a day of campaigning. “Do you need honey?” he asked.
That Mr Obi has been able so rapidly to challenge a two-party system is largely because he offers a very different sort of politics in Nigeria, where for decades the electoral calculus was largely based on politicians stoking up divisions along the lines of religion, ethnicity and regional affiliation. The candidates of the two main parties, Bola Tinubu of the ruling apc and Atiku Abubakar of the pdp, seem to still be campaigning with the aim of turning out the vote among their ethnic and religious bases. Mr Obi, by contrast, has reached across the country’s main divides, holding rallies in his opponents’ strongholds (focusing on Lagos, the commercial capital and Mr Tinubu’s stronghold, in particular) and urging voters to base their choice on character and track record.
His own record as a two-term governor of Anambra state is encouraging, though not entirely unblemished. When he took office in 2006 the state was running fiscal deficits and services were deteriorating as measured by the Human Development Index (hdi), which looks at indicators including income, education and life expectancy. At the conclusion of his second term he left the state with a fiscal surplus and it was ranked third in Nigeria by hdi.
“Obi, obi, obi” chants the bouncing crowd, fists in the air, as Peter Obi strides into a campaign rally after having unexpectedly taken a lead in the race to become the next president of Nigeria. The outcome of the election, scheduled for February 25th, will reverberate far beyond Nigeria’s borders. A free and fair vote in the continent’s biggest democracy would send a telling signal across Africa, where freedom is in retreat in a number of countries after a spate of coups, rigged votes and the abandonment of presidential term limits.
The stakes in this race are especially high for Nigeria, too. Africa’s biggest economy—and home to roughly one in six Africans—is in a deep malaise, with incomes stagnant and poverty, especially in the rural north, at shockingly high levels. And the country risks sliding into ungovernability. Although not yet a failed state, large parts of Nigeria are failing, sending instability spilling over its borders and dragging down the region’s economy. Last year about 10,000 people were killed in violent conflicts. Some of the country’s biggest problems stem from at least four overlapping security crises.
Obi: Can a political underdog save Nigeria? – Economist – Politics – Nigeria (nairaland.com)